why this election matters

in this election, the cliche becomes the alarming truth. election after every election in the philippines, talking heads always make it a point to say that this is the most important one in our lifetime. that it would redefine how we live, how we relate to our neighbors and potentially change the fortunes of millions of people for better or for worse.

2010 whether we like it might be our last chance to finally make it on board the latest and strongest wave of Asian economic revolutions. furthermore, the passing of 10 years of uninhibited and shameless greed might have spared the elite and the upper middle class with an economic implosion, but it has left the poor much more destitute than they ever were. something that doesn't mix well with our being part of the region's ascendancy as the new epicenter of world economic power.

this is validated by every survey done by either the Social Weather Station or Pulse Asia where those at the bottom of the food chain consistently describe themselves as much poorer and much hungrier than ever before. the creation of this massive underclass, angry and desperate doesn't bode well for a country trying to recover from a family's greed. it would make it a lot harder for the new president to manage an economy that has been effective divided into two distinct jurisdictions. one for the wealthy and one for the very poor. the new president will also have to grapple with a stunning budget deficit left by this irresponsible arroyo regime as a political measure to keep the economy artificially growing despite the lack of real industrial, commercial or agricultural productivity. all these factors create the perfect condition for a sudden and explosive social upheaval.

like here in the United States where the depth of this dark and nasty recession hasn't been anticipated by anyone long before it happened, the next philippine president faces a poverty problem that has been in evolution for at least 40 years. chronic and deeply insidious, this problem defies unimaginative solutions. villar's sloganeering and pathetic pandering to the poor reminds us of past campaigns that targeted this vulnerable sector as a reliable electoral tool. villar, once dirt poor, has a cute and charming story that inspires the teleserye crowd. but the presidency is more than botox-type image engineering in solving the country's problems. it takes more than a slew of commercials to hide what's behind the glitzy campaign, a dearth of ideas.

and the two leading candidates, while both declared oppositionists to arroyo, have very different backgrounds as they present themselves to the people. villar presents himself as the candidate of the poor on the basis of his having come from that side of the hood. aquino on the other hand, belongs to perhaps the most remarkable if not the most loved family in the country. to say that the aquinos are the philippines' answer to america's kennedys would perhaps be too presumptuous for the kennedys. the political orientation of these two men are quite a departure from each other as well. aquino aligns himself with the socially progressive groups that espouse policy in tune with the left of center. villar on the other hand, while having been successful in wooing some important characters from the Left, can only be described as a centrist, if at all. his past advocacies and policies have too much straddling between social philosophies that it is hard to decipher who villar really is.

well the answer is simple, he's none of these. in his political statements, he never showed any consistency of political and social purpose. his actions were dictated by what the times called for. like impeaching estrada, a supposed ally of his at that time, when public sympathy showed that that was the expedient thing to do. and in every senate investigation when he took its reins, villar clearly read the surveys everyday and conveniently acted accordingly.

now he is pandering to the poor. agitating the poor's sentiments against the government that for almost 20 years he helped craft and form policy. mindful of his billions' power in obtaining the presidency, he gives away houses and lots, tricycles and jeepneys in noontime shows with his poorly botoxed face in an act that can only be described as quintessentially filipino, dole out politics. and he makes no qualms too in declaring that he's using his own money. to say that villar is buying his way into malacanang is an understatement. how he will reap the profits of this massive investment into this campaign for the presidency, only the wisest deity would really know.

of course, aquino is not necessarily a mendicant either. he is the scion of an old and legendary political and economic clan. his existence is the perfect specimen of the marriage between politics and old money. his candidacy brings back pictures of the of the marcos-aquino divide that consumed the nation's energy for decades. questions on his sincerity about social reform appears in the backdrop of his family's feudal character. the hacienda luisita question still begs to be answered.

but despite all these, conrado de quiros' assertion of this election as being between good and evil becomes the title of this election's teleserye. the necessity of picking an honest and competent president whose character is capable of personal sacrifice instead of personal gain cannot be overemphasized. we need a leader who will not sell a part of our soul to our foreign partners as we seek our own place in the emerging world order in the Far East. villar's persistent involvement in his vast empire gives the term conflict of interest a whole new watered down definition. how a leader like him can broker well for our country and allow his businesses to take a back seat as he governs is indeed a very difficult task. villar never parted with his businesses when he was a congressman, speaker, senator, and senate president. and he won't start doing it now.

if villar wins therefore, our country will be mired again by a government that has lost all the trust that it needs to move forward the grand vision of re-building a great country. not when there are investigations left and right and a persistent instability brought about by a restless and suspicious public.

corruption must end. there's got to be a plan out there that would at least aim to drastically curb stealing other people's money. corruption not only weakens our economy, it hinders the country from fully participating in the greatest economic drama since america's surge as the leading economic power of the 20th century. if we let china's ascent scare us more than be inspired by its tremendous leap forward and be on-board the drive towards ultra-modernity, then we would have missed out once again as we did in the 60s and 70s. given the porousness of our nation's borders, goods, services and even human labor will be exchanged at levels never before seen in the world economy. the philippines should benefit immensely from this given our strategic position in the center of the southeast asian basin.

the next president's view (or the lack of it) of all these massive changes will determine who will be able to maximize the benefits of a resurgent chinese economy. it will certainly involve a resurgent japan and south korea, and the rest of southeast asia will be awash with direct investments.

we just can't afford another costly mistake at the polls anymore. it's now or never for the philippines.instead of the security threat that china has always been perceived to be in the philippines, it now presents as a giant opportunity for the philippines and for the region in creating prosperity never before seen in this scale and breadth. choosing which leader to negotiate for us will therefore determine the philippines' rising role in the Asia-Pacific.

now more that ever, our nation's fate is dependent on the economic prosperity of our neigboring China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and even Singapore. The continuing decline of the US vis-a-vis the Far East tells us of s rapidly shifting balance of economic power. in 2008, china overtook japan as the world's 2nd largest economy. in 2015, china will do the same with the US.

We would therefore require an outward-looking, honest and competent leader with no conflicting interests as he or she deals with infrastructures, joint ventures and human power exchange programs. in other words, we need an honest advocate in negotiating the terms of our country's future.

of course, he can't be selling his land with malls on the side as the site of his first bullet train project can't he?

Going Home

The other day, I spent time contemplating on where I go from here. I've settled pretty nicely in my little private cocoon in southwestern Florida under the distant but watchful eyes of my extended clan. When I boarded that Northwest flight to Newark five years ago, I have determined that it was time to create a new beginning in America. Leaving an excessively happy life in Manila with a social circle not a lot of mortals will be able to maintain wasn't necessarily easy, but the prospects of starting anew sort of negated all those nostalgic feelings of loss.

I got the job that I wanted in a city called Port Charlotte. A lot of people say that my start in the US was quite an easy one, bereft of horror stories of having to wash dishes or having to mop floors that even some my wealthier cousins had to do when they landed here decades ago. Within my first year of employment, I hit the 6-digit mark and never looked back. While I left behind a would-have-been new but flourishing career in Rehab Med, I had no regrets of the career shift I made to Pharmacy. Despite some horrific encounters with uneducated, uneducable, unkempt, severely drugged and rude scumbags as patients, pharmacists are highly regarded by the community. PharmD is almost educationally equivalent to an MD. Aside from the fact that I never had any intention of going back to residency here, I was fine with doing this gig for the long haul.

Determined to become a good American (as I still am), I believed (and still does) that immigrants have a greater burden of proving themselves worthy to share in the bounty of this country. I immersed myself in things that are important to everyone living in here. Consistently mindful of the heavy responsibility of contributing to society, I was always conscious of what I can do to help those in need. Despite the severe recession that hit the US and affected countless numbers of Americans, Fil-Ams included, the resiliency of my profession proved valuable in times of serious challenges.

But as the months turned into years, this same steadiness became my enemy as I battled the urge to go home to the Philippines. Pinoy TV was partly to blame for this slow slide into favoring a return home. My annual trips to the motherland always reconnected me with the family and friends that I left behind. But the sensation of always being home through TV everyday made me engaged with everything that was going on across the Pacific. Of course I'm exaggerating Pinoy TV's role in my life There are other big factors too. The apparent end of the Arroyo regime is a huge come-on for me since it was one of the primary reasons for my leaving in the first place. The thought of a post-Arroyo era excites me as this could open a lot of possibilities. And I must admit, I really miss the life I left behind. I miss the privileges of home. I miss the many people that surrounded me everyday in both Manila and in my home province. I miss traffic congestion too, America's freeways are way too convenient for me. I miss my friends. I miss the power that came with my uniform and my title. I know it's partly vanity, but I really want my old life back.

This going home is not set in stone though. I still haven't set the date, nor the year for that matter. All I know is that I'm no longer going to be here until and even beyond retirement. I have started to lay the ground work for this however. While this move is not by any means unstoppable, most of my present investment and career direction are all being geared towards this goal.

I guess this is a part of my destiny. Since I was a child, I have always been taught the deep sense of duty towards my country. I do not for one second regret my having left the country as this even made me value my being Filipino. Even the bad aspects of being one. I know that I will still come home to an imperfect place, one plagued by an ever worsening poverty problem, among a lot of other things. I also know that I will come home to a Philippines that had become 2 countries, one for the wealthy and one for the poor.

But these are also the reasons why I am going home. Staying In America, despite donations for causes in the Philippines, would really not mean much in effecting change. No matter how insignificant my contribution may be, I want to participate in building the country that we all want. The renewed hope with the ending of this brutal and greedy regime ushers in aspirations for a greater nation. The coming of the Pacific age with the ascendancy of China should be seized as an opportunity, not a threat. This is our new call as a nation, this just might be our time.

I have always said my piece from afar. It's now time to put my money where my mouth is. At home.

Population and Politics: The Philippine Zarzuela

There we go again. After a relatively long lull in the public debate on population and reproductive rights, two issues that are inevitably intertwined in the Third World, the Philippines is again in the thick of a bitter and important discussion. In a country that in 2007 still grew at 2.04 %, incredibly high by any standards, setting this issue aside for political convenience might be good for short term survival for the government but is potentially catastrophic for the country’s long term prospects.

At 90 million, the Philippines has the world 12th biggest population and 45th in terms of density. This is startling considering the country’s land area, the proportion of its lands that are habitable and the scarcity of its material resources. While the last issue can be debatable as the country boasts of vast natural resources, the gross mismanagement of the country’s economy has made the trickling down of those resources to the population hardly felt especially by those at the bottom of the food chain. Just driving through the streets and highways of the Philippines particularly in Manila would give you a palpable sense of how overpopulated the country is. And the problems that emanate from overpopulation of course follows. The ballooning of those living in poverty, the increasing inadequacy of government services especially those that are directed towards the poor like health care, grassroots education and social alleviation are just some of the most serious consequences of unbridled population growth. For those who have lived in America for a long time, it is perhaps easier to appreciate the sensory experience of too much people in any given space.

Given the country’s undisputedly high population growth rate, one would expect the Arroyo government to move heaven and earth to correct this long-standing problem. With its much touted emphasis on poverty alleviation, it has miserably failed to reconcile the population factor in its long-term strategy. That is how despite the high economic growth that the country has posted in the past several years, the number of poor people still rise every year. In both SWS and Pulse Asia surveys, the percentage of people who describe themselves as poor or very poor is reaching alarming proportions. To date, the government through its Department of Health would still have nothing to do with artificial means of contraception. Almost on cue from the Catholic Church, the Arroyo government refuses to promote the more scientifically proven and reliable means of contraception especially among the poor. State funding for such methods are almost negligible relative to the DOH’s overall budget. Not only are these methods rendered inaccessible to the poor, it is likewise helping in perpetuating the myth that natural birth control alone can do the job.

And it all boils down to politics. The Catholic Church’s fingerprints on the government’s population policy are all over the place. The degree in the Church’s influence is such that the statements of its bishops are hardly distinguishable from those of the government. This has been especially cemented in the aftermath of the ZTE corruption expose which made the Arroyo government’s vulnerability all the more apparent. It can be recalled that at the height of the scandal when the government’s very survival was on the line, the Church leaderships’ position tipped the balance of power towards the beleaguered Arroyo. Needless to say, had the bishops called for a People Power in those critical times, things would have been very different today.

But the Catholic Church’s lobby on the population issue is not happening just now. Ramos, the country’s first and only Protestant president, pursued a population program completely independent of the Church. It was nevertheless an uneasy 6 years with the Church for Ramos and his Protestant DOH secretary Juan Flavier. Whether Ramos’ stellar economic record was a result of good population programs, the jury is not out yet. Whether Arroyo’s economic sense will finally reconcile the population component of the country’s long term economic and social strategy, it is clear that its final couple of years promise no change in policy.

Meanwhile, we can help ease the overcrowding by staying exactly where we are.

The China Question

Having been Asia’s central power for millennia, China has consistently dominated the politics and culture of much of the Far East. From Mongolia in the north to present day archipelagic Southeast Asia in the south, from Japan in the east to Turkey in the west, the depth and breath of the Chinese empire was unparalleled. The Chinese hegemony lasted for so long that much of the Far East’s trademark cultural DNA can be traced to Chinese roots. From rice to gun powder, from navigation to the invention of paper, the world would have been vastly different if the Middle Kingdom did not exist.

And yet, as late as the early 70s, China was being dismissed even as a regional power. Its lack of a true market economy and a bankrupt financial system coupled with its backward social doctrines made it the virtual sleeping giant in the Far East. While its rival, Taiwan galloped into the 80s as a modern economic power, China was deeply embroiled in its internal political and cultural struggles. It was still so deeply embedded in its socialist path that seriously undermined its economic competitiveness. Although China possessed the largest standing army in the world, it took tiny Vietnam to claim victory in their border war in 1979. Although China also claimed victory in the same war, it was undeniably a major blow to China’s ego as a major power. For decades, China continued to be the giant panda in the room as it remained a diplomatic pariah in the world since most relations were carried out with Taiwan, a.k.a. The Republic of China.

Until Nixon’s ping-pong diplomacy in the 1970s dramatically shifted China’s standing in the world. Looking for a counter-weight to the USSR in the socialist world, Nixon sought to engage the world’s most populous country in what would be China’s debut into the modern world of diplomacy. One by one, Western nations relocated their embassies from Taipei to Beijing. In fact, in one stunning stroke of genius, our very own Marcos preempted even the United States in shifting recognition to Beijing.

Upon Mao’s death and the tumultuous power struggle that ensued, Deng Xiaoping emerged from the rubbles of the Cultural Revolution to lead the China into unprecedented modernization and prosperity. From the early 80s to the present, China’s unstoppable double digit growth became the stuff of legend. Not even Japan’s “miracle economy” after the 60s would compare with the speed and intensity with which China’s leadership pursued its giant leap forward. Overnight, fishing villages in the country’s south and southeast coasts turned into ultra-modern cities of trade and industry. It is estimated that if today’s national growth rates remain the same, 2020 would be the year when China takes over the title as the world’s largest economy.

And this thought frightens a lot of people. The re-dawning of Chinese hegemony after almost half a millennium of lagging behind the West is a true cause for concern. Still a socialist country by loose definition, the prospect of Red China becoming number one creates anxiety for those who value free market as the way to go. While Beijing’s magnificent new skyscrapers would belie any centralized socialist planning, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) omnipresence in its streets during the Beijing Olympics was my constant reminder of China’s continuous embrace of its Maoist heritage.
At the same time, however, China’s march into capitalism is just as unstoppable. The central government can continue to pledge allegiance to Mao for the duration of its existence, but one fact remains, its present prosperity is owed not to its hard-line socialist ideology but to its adoption of the free market. And if this prosperity should remain as the cornerstone of the present communist dynasty, the Chinese’ centuries old skills in trade will remain central to its way of life.

In this regard, China has truly come of age. When I decided to see the Beijing Olympics, part of my enthusiasm in coming was that I knew it would be a monumental event for China. The Olympics would be China’s stage in presenting itself as a modern, welcoming, prosperous and culturally sophisticated power. I knew that the Chinese government would spare no expense in making it the greatest Olympic event in history. And Beijing did not disappoint me.

If the Olympics would be any indication of how this massive civilization wants to engage the world, we should then be comforted by the outcome. It is also true that a lot of questions remain on how China conducts itself vis-à-vis Tibet, its regime’s stifling of political and press liberties, the perceived corruption in most levels of its bureaucracy, but it would be a serious mistake to re-isolate this awaken giant. These are all the more reason to continuously engage China.

To do otherwise is not only foolish, but extremely self-defeating.

Chacha: Here We Go Again

The drumbeat for amending the Philippine Constitution is again sounding louder and louder. As Gloria Arroyo’s term nears its almost inevitable end, the sense of panic of what is to befall her and her minions in a post-Arroyo era envelops the government. And as this sense of panic grows, the search for a stop-gap measure to avoid possible retaliation from her opponents in the form of legal prosecution becomes the order of the day.

Regardless of the type of spin that the government employs on who wants what, the hand of the administration in this effort could not be any clearer. In a momentary lapse of judgement, or an intentional testing of the waters came about when Press Secretary Jesus Dureza prayed for Arroyo’s term “by 2010 and beyond”. While the prayer was excused as a mere joke, the administration’s real intent is by no means a secret to anyone. Year after year, Arroyo’s allies in the Lower House have tried, and consistently failed, to change the constitution. From De Venecia to Nograles, the imprint of using the convening of a Constitutional Convention or a Constituent Assembly to extend their own terms and more importantly, that of Arroyo’s is never more glaring. Previous administrations have also used the precept of constitutional change to remain in office, but this is particularly more objectionable to the public due to valid questions on the administration’s legitimacy. The voice of Arroyo on the “hello garci” tapes still haunts the public until now. Besides, who would want to extend a government’s life when it should not have existed in the first place? The degree by which the public has and would continue to demonstrate its unequivocal opposition to such moves would again unravel in the next few weeks. The administration’s lack of time before the May 2010 elections and the wannabe presidents’ own agenda would undoubtedly clash either in the streets or in the halls of Congress. Or both. Arroyo’s sense of urgency is quite undeniable.


While the predominant view in political circles is that there is indeed a need to change to country’s form of government to a federal type with the question on the parliamentary type remaining more debatable, the danger of using the constitutional forum to further their own interests looms so large in the public’s consciousness. The President’s credibility problem is so bad that on this basis alone as shown in survey after survey that constitutional change has almost no chance to succeed. The country’s vastly diverse regions, both in cultural and political sense, give the argument for a federal type of government a lot of weight. This path likewise makes the issue of autonomy for Muslim Mindanao almost moot and academic. The country’s extremely expensive presidential election requires a very redundant national campaign for the candidates actually also lend validity for a parliamentary form. Prime Ministers are elected into office within parliament and require no national campaign, hence vastly reducing the cost of becoming Chief Executive. But opponents of the parliamentary form cite the country’s turncoat culture and the perceived corruption among those who would be given a hand in selecting the country’s leader. Because constitutional change is always held hostage by the administration’s obvious selfish designs, the merits of these proposals become secondary. Just the thought of Arroyo changing titles from President to Prime Minister after 2010 is such a nightmare for a lot of people.

Despite Arroyo’s strong desire to remain in office, time is still her biggest obstacle. Already, the race for to become their party’s standard bearer are in full swing. Even with the appropriately named Lower House’s best efforts to disregard the less cooperative Senate despite the latter’s change of leadership, the prospect looks dim for any real movement towards their goal. With a Senate that leans heavily to the opposition, the House would most likely attempt to go at it alone through some constitutional or legal maneuvering. But the clear need for the Senate’s approval on any move to amend the constitution spells doom for congressmen and Arroyo’s political and legal future.

In all these intramurals, however, the more important factor of the people’s disdain for the status quo and their desire for it to come to pass as quickly as possible should never be ignored. This is the dead end that they know will one day come their way. And then the country moves on, for better or for worse.

What Obama Means to Fil-Ams

Much has been said about how President-elect Barrack Obama’s presidency is transformative for the United States and its people. How only 40 years ago, African-Americans lived in the segregated South, the election to the presidency of this son of a Kenyan immigrant has truly inspired millions into a movement that made all these happen. Obama’s oratorical prowess and his program of change challenged much of the status quo even within the Democratic Party. He became the face of reform in the midst of a debilitating national picture. He embodied everything that is hopeful for a country that is reeling from the seeming collapse of the national morale.

The November 4th polls also catapulted a wider majority for the Democrats in both houses of Congress. This means that the incoming administration will have a bigger elbow room for its programs, even those that would be too Left in the eyes of conservative Republicans. Obama’s capacity to push his programs will be vastly greater than those of Clinton and Bush II given the margin of the Democrats’ seat advantage this time. Issues that would have been too precarious like immigration reform, redoing the Patriot Act, women’s reproductive rights, stem cell research and major foreign policy shifts particularly in the Middle East seem easier to tackle now than ever before. And since Obama is largely perceived to be on the Left of Clinton and even Carter, the audacity of this administration to push its agenda will be very evident.

Which is what the huge mandate in both the presidential and congressional elections means. Elections are always a referendum of existing policies and those that are proposed to replace them. That is what platforms and policy positions during the campaign are all about. The charge to power by the Democrats in Washington will of course be tempered by the promise of bipartisanship. Just 3 seats shy of the filibuster-proof 60, the Senate Democrats are poised to redefine the legislative agenda. The further fall from power of the likes of Elizabeth Dole and John Sununu also mark an ideological shift in the Senate. Even moderate Republicans agree that there will have to be a serious rethinking of where they want to be in the face of this onslaught. Like on stem cell research, or its unbridled embrace of the evangelical cause as the foundation of its electoral base and as a major component of its ideological fiber.

Above all these, Obama’s presidency is a major cataclysmic shift for a country that for years has been leaning to the Right. It will and probably already has paved the way for a change on how the world views America. The United States will once again lay the ground work for a foreign policy that is much less unilateral and takes greater consideration for international opinion. Democratic administrations have traditionally adhered to a brand of international liberalism that foreign powers have tended to favor vis-a-vis the strong-arm behavior of many Republican administrations. Obama’s pronouncements during the campaign always emphasized regaining America’s moral leadership in the world. Bush’s failure to form a broader coalition for the invasion of Iraq stemmed from this fundamental flaw in foreign policy.

On the more specific question on how the Filipino-American community will be impacted by this historic electoral triumph, nothing touches the cord of immigrant communities than immigration reform. It generates much emotion from either side of the political debate. While the issue was seldom discussed during the campaign, there is widespread expectation that Obama and the Democratic Congress will move, albeit slowly, to fix the lingering immigration issue. Increases in family and employment-based immigration will be received positively by the Filipino-American community. Obama’s close ties to the immigrant community especially when he lived in Hawaii and his own immigrant background certainly augurs well for positive changes in Washington on this deeply divisive issue. The vitality of America’s nationhood after all has deeper roots on immigration than any other policy since its foundation. The broader issue of comprehensive immigration reform that includes giving some status to illegals will be a tougher issue to tackle, but will nonetheless probably be on the table. The previous strong opposition to the defeated bill in the last Congress was premised on its lack of border security features. Many of those issues have been addressed and the plausibility of ignoring this lingering issue is next to unacceptable. And Obama possibly realizes this.
After all, finally confronting this 12 million people problem is really just a matter of time.

On a higher plane, Obama’s victory opens up the door for everybody else. It makes it easier for Asian-Americans and Latinos to dream of someday becoming leader of the Free World. Whether some people like it or not, Obama’s face is the face of America’s present and its even more diverse future. The Obama presidency revalidates America’s promise of inclusion for all those who still seek the American dream. That not only is the promise that of a better life, but a much greater role in shaping its destiny.

Who knows, the next Obama could be among us.

the democrats and obama

during the past 20 years, only one democrat won the white house. now the democrats are poised to nominate barrack obama, a senator of less than two years, barely 46 years old and has never had an extensive election experience with the republicans.

but he has captured the imagination of the youthful segment of the democratic party. tired of the status quo and wanting immediate change, these firebrands were enamored by the charismatic and freshness that obama brings into the elections. whether he's right for the nomination, and for the job should he win in november, only time will tell.

in the meantime, middle america hasn't caught up with obamarama. hillary clinton, perceived early on as the candidate of the democratic establishment, lost the early contests because of this anti-establishment onslaught. more experienced, highly skilled in the affairs of governance and a true thorn in the eyes of ideological republicans, the formidability of her general election appeal seems to have been lost on the day dreaming democrats. and so the rural, white and working class americans rejected obama in pennsylvania, ohio, west virginia and kentucky. the heart of middle america.

so we will proceed into the general elections with a candidate who hasn't made a real connection with those whose beliefs and traditions are not truly in sync with liberal california or new england. we are nominating a candidate who is the quintessential democratic liberal who represents the very reasons who democrats always lose.

in a poll by quinipiac of the 3 perennial swing states (ohio, florida and pennsylvania), whose vote for the presidency always decided who will win the contest for over 25 years, hillary clinton will beat mccain in all three by margins ranging from 4 to 10 points. obama will only win against mccain in pennsylvania by 4 points. hillary will win in the same state against the republican nominee by 8 points.

and this story is repeated all over the union. in the states where the democrats need to win in order to close the deal, obama is still struggling with the rural and working class whites, asians and hispanics. his core constituency, african-americans and highly-educated liberal democrats will vote democratic anyway. regardless of who the nominee will be. on the other hand, 30 percent of voters in an exit poll in kentucky said they would vote for mccain should obama become the democratic nominee. similar figures were obtained in pennsylvania and west virginia.

i am not writing obama off in the general election. but i would not be surprised if this will be another republican year. despite the unpopular war, despite the spiraling economy, and yes despite the wild clamor for change.

when greed becomes a way of life

when greed becomes a way of life

it's not an uncommon proposition that in order to eradicate corruption
in the philippines, you've got to kill everyone in the country above
the age of 18. during the spring and the summer, that includes my
mother. corruption had become so prevalent even 22 years after marcos
that it had assumed the status of a birthright among those in power.
to question corruption in the philippines is like a silly form of
inutile outrage. so silly that to cry foul to a government official
committing graft right before your very eyes had become one stupid
exercise.

stupid because you'll end up stupider than the stupid government
official you are trying to catch. stupid because in the eyes of the
public, you are catching a government official who only does what he
is in power for, which is steal from government coffers. after all,
conventional wisdom says, who doesn't do it anyway?

it becomes even stupider when you try to bring someone to court for,
what else, stealing money from the already bankrupt government. it had
become so ridiculous in the eye of the filipino that such an act would
only be time wasted and, ironically, even embolden those who have
assumed the habit of getting kickbacks without even trying. such is
the fate of such idiots like salonga, guingona, cory aquino and the
others who, even in the last stages of their long lives have enlisted
themselves to the most useless of useless causes. bringing gloria
arroyo to answer for her greed.

because according to popular filipino wisdom, why change a government
with a new one since the next government will be just as, if not more
corrupt, than the last? it makes perfect sense since arroyo is
preceded by estrada and estrada is preceded by ramos. who would argue
with with the fact that greed begets greed? corruption had become so
embedded in the filipino political culture that a government official
is corrupt unless proven otherwise. besides, nobody has declared noli
de castro graft-free. nor the senate president, much less the speaker
of the aptly named Lower House.

so the current "political noise", as the most corrupt of them all has
called the present situation, is nothing but the filipino's way of
saying we are not all corrupt after all. some will stand up to say
enough of too much corruption. it's time to "moderate the greed". but
as past experience would tell us, this political noise will eventual
die down and gloria arroyo will survive another test to her stellar
presidency. thanks to our adequately compensated and pathologically
loyal generals. whoever said crime does not pay must not have lived in
the philippines.

i don't know but i am still hoping that corruption is not
intrinsically filipino. that maybe it is not genetic and there might
be some hope for rehabilitation. maybe putting arroyo to jail now, or
after 2010 without the possibility of parole would be a good start.
but of course, the next president would be just as corrupt isn't it?
then jail him too for heavens sakes. and the next, and the next, and
the next until they all get it.

well, it's really wishful thinking. as filipino wisdom goes, there's
really nothing we can do.

until we all die doing nothing.

the race card

while the obamarama fever reaches temperatures never before felt in the democratic party in a long time, serious questions still linger in the minds of many democrats. clearly, obama's message of change has resonated loudly in the country and has catapulted him this far in the race for the party's nomination. he represents the new face of change in the country and the party's time-honored embrace for true reform. he has touched a chord among many democrats, and even independents if we are to believe his campaign. his flair for beautiful prose in his speeches, his fashionable line-up of hollywood's wealthy and glamorous supporters and his glaring attacks on the establishment, the clintons included, have all resonated very well to a population tired of the status quo.

but the resilience of the clinton campaign is undeniable. despite being labeled as the candidate of the democatic establishment, hillary clinton had become the underdog in this race. the surprising strong showing of this first-term, junior senator from illinois has caught the country by surprise. wildly popular among african-americans during and even after his term, bill clinton's magic didn't seem to work this time. the racial divide has been very evident with obama's very formidable support from this specific population group. whoever started this race factor being played right before the south carolina primary has certainly shaped how this race will eventually end up. hispanics, the main competitor of african-americans for government services and jobs, have rallied behind clinton in california, nevada and new mexico. in the same manner, asian-americans have demonstrated an even greater support for clinton. while asians are not considered competitors for neither hispanics nor blacks for services and jobs as we belong to a different social and economic bracket, this support is attributed to their strong affinity to the happier days of the clinton years.

however this race turns out in texas and ohio, the two largest remaining contests for the democrats, the obama jolt had made its mark. just the thought of going up against a clinton in the democratic primaries and caucuses and presenting a formidable campaign is in itself a revolution. a revolution for what and for whom, we still don't know. the specifics of this change from what to where are still to be spelled out by obama himself.

because since he laid out his campaign for change and ever since america has been drowned by the oratorical prowess of this harvard alumnus, his pronouncements have since been lacking substance. obama's speeches have delved largely on the all-encompassing theme of change. period. his failure to introduce himself properly to all americans has resulted in his poor showing among hispanics and asians. it is important that these social groups be tackled since more than 70% of asians and 60% of hispanics identify themselves as democrats. it becomes even more relevant when we consider that hispanics are now the largest minority group in the country. and when the racial divide was intentionally or unintentionally drawn in south carolina, hispanics and asians responded negatively to the obama campaign.

the texas contest will be more telling on the racial configuration of this contest. ahead in most polls in texas, clinton is counting on the support of hispanics. whatever dent obama has achieved among this racial group in virginia and maryland will come to bear in this delegate-rich state. although a smaller group in texas compared to california and hawaii, asians are not exactly non-existent in texas. these factored in with white southern voters, things can look a lot better for clinton than the past six contests.

whatever the outcome of this democratic battle for the party's nomination, america has shown its readiness for either a female or a black president. for symbolic and historical reasons, those are indeed milestones for a country that claims to be the champion of democratic ideals.

but after the inaugural is over and the milestone has been set, there's still the governing part to take care of. in this regard, the choice has is clear. experience over hype, substance over rhetoric.

even if oprah doesn't agree.

my beef with those bishops

my dissatisfaction with the catholic church started more than a decade ago with the issue on population control. back then, the philippines only had 75 million or so people. fast forward into 2008, the philippine population is approaching the 90 million mark, yet the position of the catholic bishops remain unyielding.

in a country that is growing in population at more than 2% a year, one of the highest in the world, it is unconscionable for anyone to continue to oppose family planning. family planning as defined by the united nations, family planning as described by the world health organization. just looking at the demographics at where the growth comes from, one realizes that it is occurring where there are the least resources to sustain such babies. in plain language, poorer couples are producing more children. administration after administration, the government has embarked on ambitious economic growth plans that aim to alleviate poverty. they include encouraging massive investments from overseas, increasing domestic industrial and agricultural production and even exporting human power. but even during the boom side of the boom and bust cycle that characterize the philippine economy, those gains are easily annihilated by the disproportionate growth in population.

and the clergy doesn't seem to get it. while every survey among practicing catholics since cory aquino took power indicates that they would consciously use artificial contraception as they see fit regardless of the clergy's position, the church's position still matters. it matter because it continues to block any meaningful education program on family planning and sex instruction in catholic schools. in a country where the nation's quality work force comes mainly from these private catholic schools, the debate on population control becomes a little bit tilted. during the time of protestant juan flavier's liberal stewardship of the department of health in the 90s, every effort was made by the religious to destroy his family planning program and even demonize this little giant. the church stopped at nothing to discredit flavier and his programs if only to demonstrate how powerful the catholic church was. when i was attending medicine in catholic UST, we invited flavier to speak at our frat's symposium and expound on his family planning program, our sanctimonious dominican friars of course did not let him. even in the name of science.

and the bishops call themselves men of god. these are the same bishops who oppose the use of condoms even in the prevention of HiV denying the truthfulness of overwhelming scientific evidence. the country's population program has always been hostaged by these celibate men for decades now. how this bunch of officially single men can preach on how couples should behave inside the bed room is just beyond me. the church would rather see more pot-bellied, malnourished children in the ever expanding shantytowns and whose education could no longer be supported because of the lack of resources is in my view immoral and bordering on criminal.

these celibates' lack of credibility on the issue is so astounding, yet these clergymen do not even realize how ridiculous their position had become.

now they are at it again. this time, they want the ban on artificial contraception officially legislated. forget about pot-bellied babies, forget about the exploding population.

maybe it's time to let these celibates find their brides. you see, credibility demands practicing what you preach.

two manilas

i just came back from a month of visit in manila. it has been my longest vacation in the city of my birth since i moved to the US. in a way, it has been eye opening for me, still surprising for someone who thought i knew the city well enough. many of the changes sweeping the metropolis are so visible, yet the same problems that plagued it for decades are still there and even became worse in many respects.

first, the mushrooming of new areas of development in the fort bonifacio and ortigas areas are mind-boggling. tens of new spanking, steel and glass skyscrapers are making their presence felt in a city that i really thought was lagging far behind in the asian region. fort bonifacio in particular is the resurgent new enclave of the financial center. side by side with makati, it will be the new epicenter of the country's economic power elite. in an astounding kind of way, the fort will embody the future of one side of the city, and of the country for that matter.

but just outside of this mega-development, the shantytowns are just as explosive. mile after mile of these decrepit, utterly third-world reminders of the country's poverty spread rapidly like ants in a city that can no longer cope with its almost 13 million population. they compete with the skyscrapers in providing a picture of the nation's state of development. the poor grow not in economic terms, but they just grow as this massive number of hungry, neglected and ultimately angry group of people. and they won't be as happy when the other side of town keeps up with its ostentatious show of wealth. while the upper classes contemplate on what new european cars to purchase and which exotic foreign destinations they will tour the next time, the poor are just scrambling for what's left of their richer countrymen's scrap. literally. house maid's salaries have not risen since our oldest former helper retired from service 12 years ago, an average of $50 a month. half the amount that someone dining in the fort's many fine restaurants would at least spend. a family driver's salary has also stayed where it is since the 2nd edsa revolution, an average of $200 across the country.

therefore, the higher end of the spectrum seems to be content on the economic direction the country is taking. this minute but powerful sector is carrying on its task of carving its own version of the country. modern, cosmopolitan, fashionable and in its own way, robustly filipino. they are the ones who don't let a $600-ticket for josh groban's concert flop. in full fashionable force, they came. at the lower end of the spectrum, however, that $600 could have been their passport for a domestic helper's job somewhere in hong kong. something that would alleviate them from their poverty. although this supposed new career development would still not buy them a new condo at the other side of town, but at least there would be more protein their diet.

i've always been aware, however, that the social divide in this city, and in the country to a lesser extent, has always been there. getting out of poverty is very difficult in a country where just getting into a university would, more often than not, entail carrying a good last name. or a nice bank book. but my last visit was quite startling. the wall between the social classes has risen so high that the only point of contact between the two kinds of filipinos is through employment. one being employed by the other, domestic and otherwise. but the new upscale neighborhood's level of isolation from the rest of the population is such that today's upper class filipino children will grow up believing that there's just his family, all the rest are the help. and the poor filipino children might mistakenly think that those upper class children who attend the ateneo or poveda are foreigners. they speak a different brand of the language and that their subculture has evolved distinctly from the rest of the population.

but i think one can't blame the other. the level of distrust and/or paranoia from the other is an inevitable consequence of separate evolution. i rarely left the confines of makati when i was there not only because of fear of the worsening crime rate outside the "green zone", but travel within the metropolis has just been agonizing. no late model european car can speed its way in manila's horrendous traffic. the working class's ability to travel to the other side of town, on the other hand, is limited by the fact that almost all of these communities are gated and their leisure havens are not accessible to public transportation.

manila is indeed growing. it's size, it's population, its economic strength is bolstered by a resurgent middle and upper class. this growth's ability to trickle down to the masses hasn't happened, however. it has left the poor majority population even more destitute than ever before. whether the two manilas will ever come together again in economic terms, i am not optimistic.

in the meantime, let the good times roll.

biting cold

i'm a frequent visitor to new jersey and new york. for a long time now, i've considered central jersey my home away from home besides aurora, colorado. i've lived there longer than any other place in the united states aside from my present residence in florida. and of course, colorado is home to most of my family in america. in a fifty mile radius, about 40 cousins on the cadiz side have called aurora home for many decades now.

but the northeast has always been special. the magic of new york never fails to hold me in awe whenever i visit. for a long time, i fancied looking forward to living there except that now the practicalities of living in such a complex and impractical city always catches up with me. having lived in suburban america for almost three years now, my need for more living space takes precedence over the thought of living under the glittering lights of the big apple. how could i, for example, find and ultimately be able to afford a property with a pool there? maybe in jersey. but even in jersey, you have to close the pool for four of the 12 months of the year because of freezing.

and for the three days that i stayed there last weekend, i got so tired of the 40 degree cold. it was nice in the first 4 hours, but when it had become so difficult to smoke, to walk without shoes and practically to walk anywhere without the heavy clothing, it just got very irritating.

then i appreciated how lucky i am to live in florida. it can get cold too down here, but not cold enough to forgo of smoking. and even when the temperature drops, there's always the sun shining ever brightly in the sunshine state. in my three days in NY/NJ, the sun never showed up even once. this explains much of the increase in the consumption of anti-depressants in the northern states. not to mention the consequent surge in suicides in those dreary and gloomy 4-season states during the autumn and winter.

but i like new jersey. i am more familiar with its routes and jughandles than i am with most places in northern florida. i like the diverse characteristics of its population, the compactness of this small but prosperous state, its closeness to a host of major metropolitan areas. aside from new york, boston and the rest of new england, baltimore, the DC area, philadelphia and even toronto are all within driving distance. the size of its filipino population is such that you won't miss seeing a pinoy in any mall or park speaking either filipino or english with that distinctly elegant accent.

i still have extended family in NJ. my cousin and uncle have moved down here to florida even before i did but i still have very strong links remaining in the garden state. i think i'd still visit NJ even if i head west to california.

but i'd probably prefer to do so in the spring.