Saturday, January 24, 2009

The China Question

Having been Asia’s central power for millennia, China has consistently dominated the politics and culture of much of the Far East. From Mongolia in the north to present day archipelagic Southeast Asia in the south, from Japan in the east to Turkey in the west, the depth and breath of the Chinese empire was unparalleled. The Chinese hegemony lasted for so long that much of the Far East’s trademark cultural DNA can be traced to Chinese roots. From rice to gun powder, from navigation to the invention of paper, the world would have been vastly different if the Middle Kingdom did not exist.

And yet, as late as the early 70s, China was being dismissed even as a regional power. Its lack of a true market economy and a bankrupt financial system coupled with its backward social doctrines made it the virtual sleeping giant in the Far East. While its rival, Taiwan galloped into the 80s as a modern economic power, China was deeply embroiled in its internal political and cultural struggles. It was still so deeply embedded in its socialist path that seriously undermined its economic competitiveness. Although China possessed the largest standing army in the world, it took tiny Vietnam to claim victory in their border war in 1979. Although China also claimed victory in the same war, it was undeniably a major blow to China’s ego as a major power. For decades, China continued to be the giant panda in the room as it remained a diplomatic pariah in the world since most relations were carried out with Taiwan, a.k.a. The Republic of China.

Until Nixon’s ping-pong diplomacy in the 1970s dramatically shifted China’s standing in the world. Looking for a counter-weight to the USSR in the socialist world, Nixon sought to engage the world’s most populous country in what would be China’s debut into the modern world of diplomacy. One by one, Western nations relocated their embassies from Taipei to Beijing. In fact, in one stunning stroke of genius, our very own Marcos preempted even the United States in shifting recognition to Beijing.

Upon Mao’s death and the tumultuous power struggle that ensued, Deng Xiaoping emerged from the rubbles of the Cultural Revolution to lead the China into unprecedented modernization and prosperity. From the early 80s to the present, China’s unstoppable double digit growth became the stuff of legend. Not even Japan’s “miracle economy” after the 60s would compare with the speed and intensity with which China’s leadership pursued its giant leap forward. Overnight, fishing villages in the country’s south and southeast coasts turned into ultra-modern cities of trade and industry. It is estimated that if today’s national growth rates remain the same, 2020 would be the year when China takes over the title as the world’s largest economy.

And this thought frightens a lot of people. The re-dawning of Chinese hegemony after almost half a millennium of lagging behind the West is a true cause for concern. Still a socialist country by loose definition, the prospect of Red China becoming number one creates anxiety for those who value free market as the way to go. While Beijing’s magnificent new skyscrapers would belie any centralized socialist planning, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) omnipresence in its streets during the Beijing Olympics was my constant reminder of China’s continuous embrace of its Maoist heritage.
At the same time, however, China’s march into capitalism is just as unstoppable. The central government can continue to pledge allegiance to Mao for the duration of its existence, but one fact remains, its present prosperity is owed not to its hard-line socialist ideology but to its adoption of the free market. And if this prosperity should remain as the cornerstone of the present communist dynasty, the Chinese’ centuries old skills in trade will remain central to its way of life.

In this regard, China has truly come of age. When I decided to see the Beijing Olympics, part of my enthusiasm in coming was that I knew it would be a monumental event for China. The Olympics would be China’s stage in presenting itself as a modern, welcoming, prosperous and culturally sophisticated power. I knew that the Chinese government would spare no expense in making it the greatest Olympic event in history. And Beijing did not disappoint me.

If the Olympics would be any indication of how this massive civilization wants to engage the world, we should then be comforted by the outcome. It is also true that a lot of questions remain on how China conducts itself vis-à-vis Tibet, its regime’s stifling of political and press liberties, the perceived corruption in most levels of its bureaucracy, but it would be a serious mistake to re-isolate this awaken giant. These are all the more reason to continuously engage China.

To do otherwise is not only foolish, but extremely self-defeating.

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