during the past 20 years, only one democrat won the white house. now the democrats are poised to nominate barrack obama, a senator of less than two years, barely 46 years old and has never had an extensive election experience with the republicans.
but he has captured the imagination of the youthful segment of the democratic party. tired of the status quo and wanting immediate change, these firebrands were enamored by the charismatic and freshness that obama brings into the elections. whether he's right for the nomination, and for the job should he win in november, only time will tell.
in the meantime, middle america hasn't caught up with obamarama. hillary clinton, perceived early on as the candidate of the democratic establishment, lost the early contests because of this anti-establishment onslaught. more experienced, highly skilled in the affairs of governance and a true thorn in the eyes of ideological republicans, the formidability of her general election appeal seems to have been lost on the day dreaming democrats. and so the rural, white and working class americans rejected obama in pennsylvania, ohio, west virginia and kentucky. the heart of middle america.
so we will proceed into the general elections with a candidate who hasn't made a real connection with those whose beliefs and traditions are not truly in sync with liberal california or new england. we are nominating a candidate who is the quintessential democratic liberal who represents the very reasons who democrats always lose.
in a poll by quinipiac of the 3 perennial swing states (ohio, florida and pennsylvania), whose vote for the presidency always decided who will win the contest for over 25 years, hillary clinton will beat mccain in all three by margins ranging from 4 to 10 points. obama will only win against mccain in pennsylvania by 4 points. hillary will win in the same state against the republican nominee by 8 points.
and this story is repeated all over the union. in the states where the democrats need to win in order to close the deal, obama is still struggling with the rural and working class whites, asians and hispanics. his core constituency, african-americans and highly-educated liberal democrats will vote democratic anyway. regardless of who the nominee will be. on the other hand, 30 percent of voters in an exit poll in kentucky said they would vote for mccain should obama become the democratic nominee. similar figures were obtained in pennsylvania and west virginia.
i am not writing obama off in the general election. but i would not be surprised if this will be another republican year. despite the unpopular war, despite the spiraling economy, and yes despite the wild clamor for change.
