the democrats and obama

during the past 20 years, only one democrat won the white house. now the democrats are poised to nominate barrack obama, a senator of less than two years, barely 46 years old and has never had an extensive election experience with the republicans.

but he has captured the imagination of the youthful segment of the democratic party. tired of the status quo and wanting immediate change, these firebrands were enamored by the charismatic and freshness that obama brings into the elections. whether he's right for the nomination, and for the job should he win in november, only time will tell.

in the meantime, middle america hasn't caught up with obamarama. hillary clinton, perceived early on as the candidate of the democratic establishment, lost the early contests because of this anti-establishment onslaught. more experienced, highly skilled in the affairs of governance and a true thorn in the eyes of ideological republicans, the formidability of her general election appeal seems to have been lost on the day dreaming democrats. and so the rural, white and working class americans rejected obama in pennsylvania, ohio, west virginia and kentucky. the heart of middle america.

so we will proceed into the general elections with a candidate who hasn't made a real connection with those whose beliefs and traditions are not truly in sync with liberal california or new england. we are nominating a candidate who is the quintessential democratic liberal who represents the very reasons who democrats always lose.

in a poll by quinipiac of the 3 perennial swing states (ohio, florida and pennsylvania), whose vote for the presidency always decided who will win the contest for over 25 years, hillary clinton will beat mccain in all three by margins ranging from 4 to 10 points. obama will only win against mccain in pennsylvania by 4 points. hillary will win in the same state against the republican nominee by 8 points.

and this story is repeated all over the union. in the states where the democrats need to win in order to close the deal, obama is still struggling with the rural and working class whites, asians and hispanics. his core constituency, african-americans and highly-educated liberal democrats will vote democratic anyway. regardless of who the nominee will be. on the other hand, 30 percent of voters in an exit poll in kentucky said they would vote for mccain should obama become the democratic nominee. similar figures were obtained in pennsylvania and west virginia.

i am not writing obama off in the general election. but i would not be surprised if this will be another republican year. despite the unpopular war, despite the spiraling economy, and yes despite the wild clamor for change.

when greed becomes a way of life

when greed becomes a way of life

it's not an uncommon proposition that in order to eradicate corruption
in the philippines, you've got to kill everyone in the country above
the age of 18. during the spring and the summer, that includes my
mother. corruption had become so prevalent even 22 years after marcos
that it had assumed the status of a birthright among those in power.
to question corruption in the philippines is like a silly form of
inutile outrage. so silly that to cry foul to a government official
committing graft right before your very eyes had become one stupid
exercise.

stupid because you'll end up stupider than the stupid government
official you are trying to catch. stupid because in the eyes of the
public, you are catching a government official who only does what he
is in power for, which is steal from government coffers. after all,
conventional wisdom says, who doesn't do it anyway?

it becomes even stupider when you try to bring someone to court for,
what else, stealing money from the already bankrupt government. it had
become so ridiculous in the eye of the filipino that such an act would
only be time wasted and, ironically, even embolden those who have
assumed the habit of getting kickbacks without even trying. such is
the fate of such idiots like salonga, guingona, cory aquino and the
others who, even in the last stages of their long lives have enlisted
themselves to the most useless of useless causes. bringing gloria
arroyo to answer for her greed.

because according to popular filipino wisdom, why change a government
with a new one since the next government will be just as, if not more
corrupt, than the last? it makes perfect sense since arroyo is
preceded by estrada and estrada is preceded by ramos. who would argue
with with the fact that greed begets greed? corruption had become so
embedded in the filipino political culture that a government official
is corrupt unless proven otherwise. besides, nobody has declared noli
de castro graft-free. nor the senate president, much less the speaker
of the aptly named Lower House.

so the current "political noise", as the most corrupt of them all has
called the present situation, is nothing but the filipino's way of
saying we are not all corrupt after all. some will stand up to say
enough of too much corruption. it's time to "moderate the greed". but
as past experience would tell us, this political noise will eventual
die down and gloria arroyo will survive another test to her stellar
presidency. thanks to our adequately compensated and pathologically
loyal generals. whoever said crime does not pay must not have lived in
the philippines.

i don't know but i am still hoping that corruption is not
intrinsically filipino. that maybe it is not genetic and there might
be some hope for rehabilitation. maybe putting arroyo to jail now, or
after 2010 without the possibility of parole would be a good start.
but of course, the next president would be just as corrupt isn't it?
then jail him too for heavens sakes. and the next, and the next, and
the next until they all get it.

well, it's really wishful thinking. as filipino wisdom goes, there's
really nothing we can do.

until we all die doing nothing.

the race card

while the obamarama fever reaches temperatures never before felt in the democratic party in a long time, serious questions still linger in the minds of many democrats. clearly, obama's message of change has resonated loudly in the country and has catapulted him this far in the race for the party's nomination. he represents the new face of change in the country and the party's time-honored embrace for true reform. he has touched a chord among many democrats, and even independents if we are to believe his campaign. his flair for beautiful prose in his speeches, his fashionable line-up of hollywood's wealthy and glamorous supporters and his glaring attacks on the establishment, the clintons included, have all resonated very well to a population tired of the status quo.

but the resilience of the clinton campaign is undeniable. despite being labeled as the candidate of the democatic establishment, hillary clinton had become the underdog in this race. the surprising strong showing of this first-term, junior senator from illinois has caught the country by surprise. wildly popular among african-americans during and even after his term, bill clinton's magic didn't seem to work this time. the racial divide has been very evident with obama's very formidable support from this specific population group. whoever started this race factor being played right before the south carolina primary has certainly shaped how this race will eventually end up. hispanics, the main competitor of african-americans for government services and jobs, have rallied behind clinton in california, nevada and new mexico. in the same manner, asian-americans have demonstrated an even greater support for clinton. while asians are not considered competitors for neither hispanics nor blacks for services and jobs as we belong to a different social and economic bracket, this support is attributed to their strong affinity to the happier days of the clinton years.

however this race turns out in texas and ohio, the two largest remaining contests for the democrats, the obama jolt had made its mark. just the thought of going up against a clinton in the democratic primaries and caucuses and presenting a formidable campaign is in itself a revolution. a revolution for what and for whom, we still don't know. the specifics of this change from what to where are still to be spelled out by obama himself.

because since he laid out his campaign for change and ever since america has been drowned by the oratorical prowess of this harvard alumnus, his pronouncements have since been lacking substance. obama's speeches have delved largely on the all-encompassing theme of change. period. his failure to introduce himself properly to all americans has resulted in his poor showing among hispanics and asians. it is important that these social groups be tackled since more than 70% of asians and 60% of hispanics identify themselves as democrats. it becomes even more relevant when we consider that hispanics are now the largest minority group in the country. and when the racial divide was intentionally or unintentionally drawn in south carolina, hispanics and asians responded negatively to the obama campaign.

the texas contest will be more telling on the racial configuration of this contest. ahead in most polls in texas, clinton is counting on the support of hispanics. whatever dent obama has achieved among this racial group in virginia and maryland will come to bear in this delegate-rich state. although a smaller group in texas compared to california and hawaii, asians are not exactly non-existent in texas. these factored in with white southern voters, things can look a lot better for clinton than the past six contests.

whatever the outcome of this democratic battle for the party's nomination, america has shown its readiness for either a female or a black president. for symbolic and historical reasons, those are indeed milestones for a country that claims to be the champion of democratic ideals.

but after the inaugural is over and the milestone has been set, there's still the governing part to take care of. in this regard, the choice has is clear. experience over hype, substance over rhetoric.

even if oprah doesn't agree.

my beef with those bishops

my dissatisfaction with the catholic church started more than a decade ago with the issue on population control. back then, the philippines only had 75 million or so people. fast forward into 2008, the philippine population is approaching the 90 million mark, yet the position of the catholic bishops remain unyielding.

in a country that is growing in population at more than 2% a year, one of the highest in the world, it is unconscionable for anyone to continue to oppose family planning. family planning as defined by the united nations, family planning as described by the world health organization. just looking at the demographics at where the growth comes from, one realizes that it is occurring where there are the least resources to sustain such babies. in plain language, poorer couples are producing more children. administration after administration, the government has embarked on ambitious economic growth plans that aim to alleviate poverty. they include encouraging massive investments from overseas, increasing domestic industrial and agricultural production and even exporting human power. but even during the boom side of the boom and bust cycle that characterize the philippine economy, those gains are easily annihilated by the disproportionate growth in population.

and the clergy doesn't seem to get it. while every survey among practicing catholics since cory aquino took power indicates that they would consciously use artificial contraception as they see fit regardless of the clergy's position, the church's position still matters. it matter because it continues to block any meaningful education program on family planning and sex instruction in catholic schools. in a country where the nation's quality work force comes mainly from these private catholic schools, the debate on population control becomes a little bit tilted. during the time of protestant juan flavier's liberal stewardship of the department of health in the 90s, every effort was made by the religious to destroy his family planning program and even demonize this little giant. the church stopped at nothing to discredit flavier and his programs if only to demonstrate how powerful the catholic church was. when i was attending medicine in catholic UST, we invited flavier to speak at our frat's symposium and expound on his family planning program, our sanctimonious dominican friars of course did not let him. even in the name of science.

and the bishops call themselves men of god. these are the same bishops who oppose the use of condoms even in the prevention of HiV denying the truthfulness of overwhelming scientific evidence. the country's population program has always been hostaged by these celibate men for decades now. how this bunch of officially single men can preach on how couples should behave inside the bed room is just beyond me. the church would rather see more pot-bellied, malnourished children in the ever expanding shantytowns and whose education could no longer be supported because of the lack of resources is in my view immoral and bordering on criminal.

these celibates' lack of credibility on the issue is so astounding, yet these clergymen do not even realize how ridiculous their position had become.

now they are at it again. this time, they want the ban on artificial contraception officially legislated. forget about pot-bellied babies, forget about the exploding population.

maybe it's time to let these celibates find their brides. you see, credibility demands practicing what you preach.

two manilas

i just came back from a month of visit in manila. it has been my longest vacation in the city of my birth since i moved to the US. in a way, it has been eye opening for me, still surprising for someone who thought i knew the city well enough. many of the changes sweeping the metropolis are so visible, yet the same problems that plagued it for decades are still there and even became worse in many respects.

first, the mushrooming of new areas of development in the fort bonifacio and ortigas areas are mind-boggling. tens of new spanking, steel and glass skyscrapers are making their presence felt in a city that i really thought was lagging far behind in the asian region. fort bonifacio in particular is the resurgent new enclave of the financial center. side by side with makati, it will be the new epicenter of the country's economic power elite. in an astounding kind of way, the fort will embody the future of one side of the city, and of the country for that matter.

but just outside of this mega-development, the shantytowns are just as explosive. mile after mile of these decrepit, utterly third-world reminders of the country's poverty spread rapidly like ants in a city that can no longer cope with its almost 13 million population. they compete with the skyscrapers in providing a picture of the nation's state of development. the poor grow not in economic terms, but they just grow as this massive number of hungry, neglected and ultimately angry group of people. and they won't be as happy when the other side of town keeps up with its ostentatious show of wealth. while the upper classes contemplate on what new european cars to purchase and which exotic foreign destinations they will tour the next time, the poor are just scrambling for what's left of their richer countrymen's scrap. literally. house maid's salaries have not risen since our oldest former helper retired from service 12 years ago, an average of $50 a month. half the amount that someone dining in the fort's many fine restaurants would at least spend. a family driver's salary has also stayed where it is since the 2nd edsa revolution, an average of $200 across the country.

therefore, the higher end of the spectrum seems to be content on the economic direction the country is taking. this minute but powerful sector is carrying on its task of carving its own version of the country. modern, cosmopolitan, fashionable and in its own way, robustly filipino. they are the ones who don't let a $600-ticket for josh groban's concert flop. in full fashionable force, they came. at the lower end of the spectrum, however, that $600 could have been their passport for a domestic helper's job somewhere in hong kong. something that would alleviate them from their poverty. although this supposed new career development would still not buy them a new condo at the other side of town, but at least there would be more protein their diet.

i've always been aware, however, that the social divide in this city, and in the country to a lesser extent, has always been there. getting out of poverty is very difficult in a country where just getting into a university would, more often than not, entail carrying a good last name. or a nice bank book. but my last visit was quite startling. the wall between the social classes has risen so high that the only point of contact between the two kinds of filipinos is through employment. one being employed by the other, domestic and otherwise. but the new upscale neighborhood's level of isolation from the rest of the population is such that today's upper class filipino children will grow up believing that there's just his family, all the rest are the help. and the poor filipino children might mistakenly think that those upper class children who attend the ateneo or poveda are foreigners. they speak a different brand of the language and that their subculture has evolved distinctly from the rest of the population.

but i think one can't blame the other. the level of distrust and/or paranoia from the other is an inevitable consequence of separate evolution. i rarely left the confines of makati when i was there not only because of fear of the worsening crime rate outside the "green zone", but travel within the metropolis has just been agonizing. no late model european car can speed its way in manila's horrendous traffic. the working class's ability to travel to the other side of town, on the other hand, is limited by the fact that almost all of these communities are gated and their leisure havens are not accessible to public transportation.

manila is indeed growing. it's size, it's population, its economic strength is bolstered by a resurgent middle and upper class. this growth's ability to trickle down to the masses hasn't happened, however. it has left the poor majority population even more destitute than ever before. whether the two manilas will ever come together again in economic terms, i am not optimistic.

in the meantime, let the good times roll.